Essentially it’s pattern recognition, as certain data points appear

before major peaks and troughs in output, yields and equities.

• Business Cycle Developments (BCD) measures several economic variables that behave a certain way prior to a major change in the direction of the financial markets or the business cycle

• BCD consists of six Monitors that track the cyclical peaks and troughs for the business cycle, the bond market and stock market.

• Each of the six Monitors are comprised of six to ten individual Indicators that measure the rate-of-change of two or more independent economic variables.

• When a majority of individual Indicators within each monitor turn negative or positive a compelling message can be made that a cyclical peak or trough will soon occur changing the direction of the financial markets or the business cycle.

• This disciplined rate-of-change technique enables the Monitors to identify and signal changes in market and economic conditions far earlier than traditional methods of economic analysis.